This best estimate by the group, which met recently, paints a concerning picture and with businesses unlikely to open before April this year, the outlook for the 2020/2021 fiscal year appears equally gloomy.
The figure of £35m - compared to an income of £69 million in 2019 - is extrapolated from passenger numbers which suggest that visitor volume was down by 60 per cent in 2020.
The full financial impact is still to be realised, however, as debts will continue to increase and repayments extended, thus reducing the ability for future investment.
These are the findings of Arran Recovery Group, (ARG) which includes representatives from the Health and Social Care Partnership, Arran Community Council, Visit Arran, Auchrannie, Taste of Arran, Eco Savvy, Arran Development Trust, North Ayrshire Council support, local councillors, Arran High School, ACVS, Arran Ferry Committee, Highlands and Island Enterprise and Arran Economic Group.
While the initial estimates are stark, there is optimism within the group, which plans to refocus its efforts this year.
It will move away from a reactive operational agenda to implementing programmes in its Arran Recovery and Beyond plan, which includes pushing for special financial support for islands in general and Arran in particular.
The plan focuses on three main strands of island life: community, environment and economy through each stage of recovery, underpinned by national and local Health and Social Care Partnership guidance.
At the meeting it was noted that there were many positive developments, including the provision of affordable housing which had been recently approved; the nationwide vaccination programme; and success in the community aspect of the plan, such as mental health progress, youth work and the Arran Community Hub.
Chief among the reasons for optimism is the appointment of an islands manager in mid-March, a post which will be a collaboration between North Ayrshire Council, the Scottish Government and Highland and Islands Enterprise.
This aims to breathe new life into island communities and support the implementation of the Islands (Scotland) Act 2018 and the National Islands Plan, whilst reinforcing green economic recovery in light of Covid-19.
ARG intends to work closely with the islands manager and at its next two meetings, on Friday February 12 and Friday March 12, it will update the plan to support his/her work.
As expected the group paid special attention to the financial assistance available to businesses, noting that many are just trying to survive and that it would be harder for businesses to reopen the longer that closures and restrictions continued, particularly with a severely impacted supply chain.
ARG said it would continue to investigate funding streams, noting that there was a vast array of funds, but that they can be difficult to navigate and that levels of support can be insufficient, meaning that businesses are borrowing to fund fixed costs.
From a community perspective, ARG found that good progress was being made, most notably with digital support for low-income families with schoolchildren; provision of emergency hampers; financial support and keeping the public informed of services and options available to them.
Much of this work was undertaken by Arran Community and Voluntary Service and the Arran Outdoor Centre and Arran High School.
Despite the challenges that lie ahead, with further reduced tourism this year, and with existing government support packages on offer, ARG feels that with good engagement and assistance from all of partners which support the Arran Recovery Plan, Arran remains in a strong position to recover from the socio-economic difficulties faced by the pandemic.
Chairman of Arran Economic Group, Tom Tracey, told the Banner: ‘Arran's community, as expected, has pulled together through all the disruptions created by the virus, with all the examples outlined.
'Businesses have acted responsibility in servicing locals and visitors, ultimately closing down, when they thought it necessary.
'Covid-19 continues to cost lives and we are still in the middle of this pandemic. With that backdrop, it may seem crass to talk about community disruption and past financial losses.
'However, while acknowledging this, we need to apply lessons learned and resources established to plan, support, resource and act our way through the crisis.
‘The plan, Arran Recovery and Beyond, pulls together the great work of individual groups to show the collective Arran effort.
'Arran is unique in having this evolving document, which like all plans will only be measured in its implementation.
'Covid-19 impact has been costly. Recovery will be slow but steady. We need to work to retain the balance between community, environment and the economy.
'All the things that make Arran a special place.’
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